Ask what a SAF certificate costs, and the honest first answer is a question: which one?
For a CFO used to commodity markets, that is frustrating. Jet fuel has a visible price. SAF certificates do not trade on a screen, and two certificates that look similar can carry very different price tags.
This is not a sign that the market is broken. It is a sign that it is early. But it does mean anyone budgeting for SAFc needs to understand what drives the price before asking for a number.
There is no single price
SAF itself costs more to produce than conventional jet fuel, often several times more depending on the pathway. The certificate price is built mainly on that gap, the green premium: the difference between the cost of the sustainable fuel and the fossil fuel it replaces.
On top of that sit the usual market forces. Limited supply. Strong early demand. Differences in feedstock, production route, delivery year and certification. A certificate tied to a scarce synthetic fuel will not cost the same as one tied to a widely available waste-based fuel.
So there is no single SAFc price, in the way there is a single oil price. There is a range, and where a given certificate sits in that range depends on what it actually is.
What you are actually paying for
It helps to separate the price into the things that move it.
Feedstock and pathway. Waste and residue-based fuels are generally cheaper today than synthetic e-fuels made from renewable hydrogen and captured carbon. The cheaper option is not always the stronger long-term story.
Lifecycle carbon intensity. Two fuels can both be SAF and still reduce emissions by very different amounts. A certificate is, in part, a claim on a specific quantity of avoided emissions, so carbon intensity affects value, not just price.
Delivery timing and volume. Buying for future years, or in larger volumes, changes both price and availability. Forward commitments can secure access in a tight market, but they also carry commitment.
Certification and registry. Stronger certification and a credible registry add cost, and value. They are part of what makes the claim defensible later.
In an early market, a low price is information. It tells you to ask what has been left out.
Why opacity is a feature of an early market
Several things keep SAFc pricing unclear. Much of it is bilateral, negotiated between buyers, suppliers and intermediaries rather than cleared on an exchange. Supply is concentrated and still scaling. Standards are still moving. And because the market is young, there are few public benchmarks to anchor expectations.
This opacity will ease as the market matures. For now, it means price comparison is only meaningful when you compare like with like. A cheaper certificate is not automatically better value if it represents a weaker fuel, a weaker registry or a weaker claim.
How to budget without a clean benchmark
For ESG and finance teams, the practical task is to build a defensible budget in a market that does not hand you one. A few habits help:
- Budget from your aviation Scope 3 volume, not from a headline price
- Ask for price ranges by feedstock, pathway and delivery year
- Compare on carbon intensity and certification, not only on cost per certificate
- Treat forward purchases as a way to manage access and price risk
- Document why a given price was reasonable at the time of purchase
- Revisit assumptions annually as supply and standards evolve
None of this requires a perfect benchmark. It requires a consistent method, and a record of the judgment behind each decision.
Price is a question of value, not just cost
SAFc will not be the cheapest line in a decarbonisation budget. That is partly the point: the cost reflects a real fuel intervention, not a generic credit.
The goal is not to find the lowest number. It is to know that the price paid bought a credible, well-documented contribution to aviation decarbonisation, aligned with the company's net zero or SBTi strategy. Refine helps buyers understand SAFc pricing, compare like with like, and budget with confidence.
